S&P Keeps Ghana at B-/B Rating with Stable Outlook, but Warns of Debt Service Risks Ahead

Standard & Poor's Global has maintained Ghana's sovereign credit rating at B-/B for both foreign and local currency denominations, with a stable outlook, according to its latest country assessment released on 25 September 2025. The ratings agency also reaffirmed its B- transfer and convertibility assessment, signalling confidence that the country can meet its external obligations in the near term.

The B-/B classification places Ghana in the non-investment grade or speculative category, reflecting high credit risk and vulnerability to economic shocks. However, the stable outlook indicates S&P does not expect downgrades in the immediate period, a modest reassurance for investors and creditors following Ghana's debt restructuring process that began after the 2022 default on Eurobond payments worth US$13.1 billion.

What Prompted the Affirmation

S&P cited several positive factors underpinning its decision. The expansion of Ghana's gold sector is materially strengthening external metrics, providing crucial foreign exchange inflows. The agency also recognised the resilience of Ghana's economy to external shocks, particularly the economic effects of the Middle East conflict on global trade and energy prices.

Equally important, S&P acknowledged the government's ongoing fiscal reforms, which are anchored by a new 36-month unfunded policy coordination instrument from the International Monetary Fund. These reforms signal a commitment to fiscal discipline and sustainable debt management, areas that were central to Ghana's debt crisis.

Significant Concerns Remain

Despite the stable outlook, S&P raised red flags about Ghana's structural vulnerabilities. The agency expressed concern about the weakened financial position of the Bank of Ghana, driven partly by the government's strategy to rapidly accumulate foreign currency reserves through gold exports—a process requiring significant recapitalisation of the central bank.

S&P also flagged the elevated fiscal costs associated with the Ghana Gold Board (GoldBod), the state entity managing gold exports. The agency warned that debt servicing costs remain stubbornly high, and contingent liabilities from state-owned enterprises and the central bank pose ongoing risks to public finances.

Why This Matters for Ghana

The affirmation is a critical confidence signal for Ghana's economic recovery trajectory. After defaulting on external debt and enduring years of fiscal stress, maintaining a stable outlook demonstrates that the country is on the right path—but the road ahead remains narrow. Any misstep in fiscal discipline or gold-dependent export performance could trigger a downgrade within 12 to 18 months, S&P cautioned.

The agency specifically warned of downgrade triggers: rising deficits from fiscal slippage, deterioration in Bank of Ghana or GoldBod finances, debt service costs exceeding forecasts, or a decline in commodity prices and export volumes. For ordinary Ghanaians, a downgrade would likely mean higher borrowing costs, reduced foreign investment, and potential pressure on the local currency.

Critically, S&P also flagged the risk of stalled debt restructuring talks. If Ghana's creditors cannot agree on comparable treatment under the G20 Common Framework, negotiations could collapse, undermining the entire recovery effort. This underscores the fragility of Ghana's current position and the importance of successfully concluding debt talks with bilateral and multilateral creditors.

The stable outlook provides breathing room, but Ghana cannot afford complacency. Sustained fiscal reforms, stronger management of state enterprises, and continued gold sector performance are essential to avoid a downgrade that would reverse recent progress.