Paul Afoko brushes off NPP chair poll predictions ahead of October 3 vote

Paul Afoko, one of the leading contenders in the New Patriotic Party's chairmanship race, has publicly rejected predictions from recent opinion polls, insisting that the only credible measure of his campaign's strength will come from the actual voting by party delegates on October 3.

His dismissal of polling data follows the release of a Global InfoAnalytics survey that ranked him third among the main contenders. The August 20, 2026 survey showed former NPP General Secretary John Boadu commanding 27% support among respondents, with former Energy Minister Boakye Agyarko in second place at 15%, while Afoko polled at 10%.

Speaking after a thanksgiving service for newly elected Ashanti Regional NPP executives in Nhyiaeso Constituency, Afoko made clear his scepticism towards pre-election surveys. "I don't believe in any polls. The only poll I believe in is the October 3 poll here in Kumasi," he stated, highlighting that Kumasi will host the delegate election.

Ground engagement versus prediction models

Afoko argued that his confidence stems from direct engagement with delegates across different regions, rather than from statistical projections. He claimed that these face-to-face interactions had strengthened his conviction about his campaign's momentum, even as external surveys suggested otherwise.

The NPP chairmanship hopeful questioned the reliability of opinion polling methods themselves, pointing out the inherent difficulty in ascertaining voters' true intentions through surveys. "All other polls are just speculation. And as they say, you can't enter into a person's mind and know whether they are telling you the truth or not," he noted.

This stance reflects a common challenge in political polling—the gap between what respondents tell surveyors and how they ultimately vote. Delegate elections, particularly within political parties, can be especially difficult to predict because they involve specific, known voters who may shift their positions based on last-minute endorsements, personal relationships, or campaign intensity during the crucial final days.

What this means for Ghana's political landscape

The NPP chairmanship election carries significant weight in Ghanaian politics. The National Chair serves as a key organisational figure within the party, overseeing internal structures and representing the party's interests between electoral cycles. With the NPP having won the 2024 general election and currently holding power, the identity of the new chair will influence party direction and cohesion during President John Mahama's term.

The race appears competitive, with multiple candidates claiming delegate support and challenging the predictive value of pre-election surveys. The October 3 election will reveal whether established polling models accurately captured delegate preferences or whether ground-level campaigns proved more decisive than statistical projections suggested.

For Ghanaian voters and political observers, the contest also serves as a practical test of how accurately opinion polling reflects actual outcomes within the Ghanaian political context—a question that will prove relevant as the nation approaches future electoral cycles.