El Niño Threatens Akosombo Dam Output as GMet Warns of Prolonged Dry Spells Ahead

Ghana's Meteorological Agency (GMet) has raised the alarm over the potential impact of the ongoing El Niño weather phenomenon on the country's water resources and electricity supply, warning that reduced rainfall across West Africa could lower inflows into the Volta River and threaten power generation at the Akosombo Dam.

What GMet is saying

Francisca Martey, Deputy Director of Research and Applied Meteorology at GMet, made the warning during an appearance on Joy FM's Super Morning Show, explaining that El Niño — the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) — was already influencing rainfall patterns across the sub-region. She noted that Ghana and its neighbours were all experiencing below-normal rainfall as a result, and that this shared rainfall deficit had direct consequences for transboundary water resources.

Mrs Martey confirmed that the September-October-November period had already been forecast to bring extended dry spells and below-normal rainfall. Crucially, she said those dry conditions were expected to persist well into the December-January-February period, when the Harmattan season would compound the situation by bringing drier air and above-normal temperatures across the country.

Northern Ghana, she stressed, faced a more acute version of these challenges. The north's dependence on stored rainwater for both drinking and farming means that a prolonged dry spell could quickly exhaust whatever reserves communities managed to collect during the main rainy season. "The little rainwater that they have kept or saved would also dry up," she warned.

Why it matters for Ghana

The Akosombo Dam remains the backbone of Ghana's electricity generation. When the water level of Lake Volta — the reservoir that feeds the dam — drops significantly, the Volta River Authority is forced to reduce generation capacity, triggering power rationing that Ghanaians commonly refer to as dumsor. Ghana has lived through several painful bouts of load-shedding in recent decades, most notably between 2012 and 2016, with reduced Akosombo output frequently cited as a key contributing factor.

The broader concern is that El Niño does not respect national borders. Because the Volta Basin stretches across Burkina Faso, Togo, Benin, Côte d'Ivoire and Mali — in addition to Ghana — reduced rainfall in any of those countries means less water eventually flowing into Lake Volta. Mrs Martey made this point explicitly, underlining that a regional rainfall shortfall translates directly into a Ghanaian energy problem.

For farmers, especially those in the three northern regions, the stakes are equally high. Agriculture in northern Ghana is predominantly rain-fed, and a prolonged dry season arriving on the heels of below-normal rains could undermine food production and push up prices nationally.

What Ghanaians should do

GMet is urging farmers to adopt climate-smart agricultural practices such as mulching, which helps retain soil moisture during dry periods. The agency said it was already engaging stakeholders across agriculture, health and water resources management to improve preparedness.

• Farmers are advised to conserve soil moisture through mulching and other water-retention techniques.
• The general public is encouraged to stay well hydrated, particularly during the Harmattan months of December through February.
• Ghanaians should protect themselves against dusty and dry conditions, which can worsen respiratory health during the Harmattan season.

The warning from GMet serves as an early signal for energy planners, policymakers and households alike to begin preparing for what could be a difficult dry season — one with consequences that stretch well beyond the weather itself.