Petrol, diesel prices to surge from Friday as global oil crisis and weak cedi squeeze Ghana

Ghanaians will dig deeper into their pockets from Friday, August 1, as petrol, diesel and cooking gas prices surge significantly across the country. The Chamber of Oil Marketing Companies (COMAC) has projected steep increases across all three major petroleum products, driven by a combination of global crude oil volatility and the weakening Ghana cedi against the US dollar.

According to COMAC's pricing outlook for the August 1–15 window, diesel will experience the sharpest increase at 12.50%, rising to approximately GH¢17.45 per litre. Petrol will jump by 7.58% to around GH¢15.23 per litre, whilst liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) will increase by 4.13% to GH¢16.40 per kilogram. These moves follow an announcement by the National Petroleum Authority (NPA) that has revised price floors upward—diesel's floor climbed from GH¢14.35 to GH¢16.97 per litre, whilst petrol's floor rose from GH¢13.28 to GH¢14.53 per litre.

What's driving the increases?

The price surge stems from two main pressures. Globally, crude oil prices have spiked dramatically, with average prices climbing from US$71.90 to US$88.62 per barrel during the review period—a 23.25% jump. COMAC attributes this chiefly to geopolitical tensions, particularly the escalating US-Iran conflict and uncertainty surrounding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global shipping route. Whilst initial hopes for a peace agreement briefly calmed markets, Iran's rejection of a shared-control proposal and renewed tanker attacks have kept crude prices elevated near US$88 per barrel.

Refined petroleum products have climbed even faster than crude itself. Diesel posted the highest surge at 24.84%, followed by petrol at 12.58% and LPG at 12.24%. Domestically, the Ghana cedi has weakened by 1.41% against the US dollar during the review period, moving from GH¢11.4970 to GH¢11.6593 per dollar. Since petroleum products are traded internationally in US dollars, a weaker cedi makes imports more expensive, amplifying the burden on consumers.

Why this matters for Ghana

Higher fuel prices ripple across Ghana's economy rapidly. Transport operators typically pass increases to commuters within days, raising the cost of moving goods and people. Small businesses that rely on diesel generators for electricity face higher operating costs. Food prices tend to follow as production and distribution become more expensive. For ordinary Ghanaians, especially those living in urban centres who commute daily or rely on commercial transport, household budgets will feel immediate pressure.

The NPA's new price floors are meant to protect consumers from excessive profiteering by ensuring some competitive discipline among fuel retailers. However, analysts suggest that many Oil Marketing Companies have already raised prices preemptively in recent weeks, meaning some consumers may see smaller incremental jumps at the pump than the published percentages suggest.

Ghana's reliance on imported crude and refined petroleum products leaves the country vulnerable to global price shocks and currency fluctuations beyond government control. Policymakers face a difficult balancing act: maintaining subsidies or controls to shield consumers, or allowing prices to rise to market levels, risking social friction but reducing fiscal strain.