NPP Chairman Race Wide Open as Boadu Leads but 30% of Delegates Still Undecided

The race to become the next National Democratic Congress (NDC) National Chairman remains fluid and unpredictable, according to a new poll released by Africa Policy Lens (APL). Whilst former General Secretary John Boadu leads the field with 38.6% support among delegates, nearly a third of voters remain undecided, leaving the outcome far from certain as Ghana's largest opposition party prepares for its leadership elections.

The APL National Executives Poll, conducted between July 13 and August 21, 2026, surveyed 976 eligible constituency and regional executives who will decide the party's next chairman. Boadu's lead strengthens significantly when considering only those who have made up their minds, rising to 65.0% of decided votes. However, the 30.7% of delegates who remain undecided represents a substantial bloc capable of reshaping the race entirely.

The Contenders and Their Support Base

Former Energy Minister Boakye Agyarko emerges as Boadu's closest rival, commanding 20.7% overall support and 34.8% among decided voters. Despite trailing by nearly 18 percentage points, analysts note this margin is considerably smaller than leads seen in other NPP leadership contests, suggesting the chairmanship race remains genuinely competitive.

Former NPP Chairman Paul Afoko trails with 5.9% support overall, whilst Bernard Antwi Boasiako (widely known as Chairman Wontumi) recorded 3.2% despite having withdrawn from the race. His residual support hints that some delegates may not be fully aware of candidate withdrawals or may retain preference for candidates no longer actively campaigning. Sammy Crabbe rounds out the field with just 0.8% support.

Geography Determines Loyalty in NPP Strongholds

Perhaps most striking is how dramatically support varies by region, revealing that delegate preferences are heavily influenced by local considerations and regional affiliations. Boadu commands overwhelming support in Bono East (65.0%), Upper East (59.6%), and Eastern Region (52.6%), yet struggles significantly in Western North (8.7%) and Ahafo, where he polls at 0.0%.

Agyarko's strength lies in regions where Boadu falters. He leads in Western North with 39.1% and Ahafo with 38.5%, suggesting the former Energy Minister may consolidate support among delegates in Ghana's western territories. Paul Afoko's support peaks in Upper West Region at 17.9%, indicating potential regional loyalty to the former chairman.

Why It Matters for Ghana's Political Landscape

The NPP chairmanship contest carries implications beyond party internal dynamics. As the main opposition to the current government, the party's leadership will shape its electoral strategy, policy direction, and messaging heading towards future national elections. A fragmented chairmanship race, particularly one decided by narrow margins in a competitive field, could leave internal divisions that affect party cohesion and campaign effectiveness.

The APL analysis identifies three reasons the race remains genuinely open: the substantial undecided vote, the narrow margin between frontrunners compared to other leadership positions, and the expected redistribution of votes following Wontumi's withdrawal. Analysts suggest intensive campaigning in regions where Boadu remains weak—particularly Western North and Ahafo—could prove decisive in determining the outcome.

For Ghana's democracy, a competitive and transparent party leadership process strengthens institutional health, even when it reveals regional fault lines within political parties. The final decision rests with 976 party executives whose votes will be cast in the coming weeks, with undecided delegates likely to prove pivotal in determining whether Boadu consolidates his position or whether Agyarko mounts a successful comeback.