El Niño Threatens Ghana's Cocoa Output as Fitch Solutions Warns of Supply Pressures Into 2027

Ghana's cocoa sector faces a difficult period ahead, with global research firm Fitch Solutions projecting production of 670,000 tonnes for the 2026/27 crop season — a figure that reflects mounting pressure from the El Niño climate phenomenon. Neighbouring Côte d'Ivoire is expected to fare worse, with output forecast at 1.7 million tonnes, representing a steep 17.5% year-on-year decline. Ghana's production, by contrast, is expected to remain broadly flat.

El Niño refers to a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, which disrupts global weather patterns and can trigger severe droughts, excessive rainfall, and heatwaves — conditions that are particularly damaging to cocoa farming across West Africa.

Fitch Solutions highlighted the dominance of smallholder farmers in both countries as a key vulnerability. These farmers typically lack access to irrigation systems, affordable financing, and modern agricultural technologies, leaving their yields highly sensitive to erratic rainfall. The firm warned that reduced fertiliser effectiveness during dry spells could discourage farmers from applying inputs at all, risking further yield losses.

Main Crop Season at Greatest Risk

The research firm noted that the critical fertiliser application window for the main cocoa crop falls around September, meaning El Niño-related disruptions could have a more immediate impact on 2026/27 output than earlier projections had assumed. The mid-crop harvest, however, is considered less exposed, since fertiliser applications for that cycle would typically have been completed around April 2026.

Beyond weather risks, Fitch Solutions pointed to deeper structural problems undermining both Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire's cocoa industries. Ageing tree stocks in both countries are limiting yield potential and making crops more susceptible to disease. Drier, warmer conditions linked to El Niño are expected to weaken tree health further and increase pest pressure, raising the prospect of sharper-than-expected production losses.

The findings come at a sensitive time for Ghana's economy, which remains heavily reliant on cocoa as a key export earner. Any significant shortfall in output could have wider implications for the country's foreign exchange revenues and the livelihoods of the hundreds of thousands of farming families who depend on the crop.