Ghana's T-bill yields set to edge higher in second half of 2026, Databank forecasts

Ghana's short-term treasury bill yields are forecast to trade slightly higher in the second half of 2026, according to fresh analysis from Databank Research. The 91-day bill is projected to fluctuate between 5.5% and 7.5%, while the longer-dated 364-day bill is expected to move within a 12.5% to 14.0% range—modest increases from current levels of around 4.9% and 10% respectively.

The outlook reflects Ghana's delicate balancing act as the Ministry of Finance manages competing pressures: the need to contain borrowing costs through active yield management, set against substantial funding requirements tied to upcoming debt obligations and maturities.

Liquidity boost then tightening

Databank's analysis suggests domestic liquidity conditions should remain broadly supportive through the second half of 2026, buoyed initially by GH¢10.8 billion in coupon payments from the Domestic Debt Exchange Programme expected in August. This cash injection should trigger reinvestment demand from banks, pension funds and collective investment schemes, sustaining appetite for government securities and underpinning auction success in the third quarter.

However, the firm warns that this liquidity advantage may fade as the year progresses. Rising sovereign and corporate issuance is likely to absorb excess cash in the market, moderating the initial lift to demand. This dynamic explains why yields are expected to face sustained upward pressure despite the Treasury's efforts to keep repricing gradual through disciplined yield management.

Why it matters for Ghana

Treasury bill yields are a barometer of Ghana's fiscal health and borrowing costs. Higher T-bill yields make short-term government borrowing more expensive and can signal investor concerns about sustainability. For ordinary Ghanaians, rising yields feed through to higher interest rates on mortgages, personal loans and business credit, affecting household and business finances across the economy.

The Databank forecast underscores the government's strategic pivot toward longer-term domestic borrowing. Rather than relying heavily on short-dated T-bills—which must be rolled over frequently and can spike sharply—the Treasury is gradually shifting to medium and long-term bond issuances. This approach aims to stabilise the yield curve, reduce refinancing risk and diminish dependence on volatile short-term funding.

Critical to this strategy is the Sinking Fund, which the government is building from its current GH¢15.6 billion towards a year-end target of GH¢30 billion. This buffer is essential to cushion the impact of large DDEP maturities expected from 2027 onwards, ensuring Ghana can meet its obligations without sudden market shocks. Planned debt-reprofiling and bond buybacks will further smooth the maturity profile and retire expensive legacy debt.

Market demand remains solid

Despite economic headwinds, investor appetite for Ghana's government securities remains robust. In the first half of 2026, total bids at T-bill auctions surged 94.1% year-on-year to GH¢234.86 billion, signalling confidence in the Treasury's management and the relative safety of short-term instruments. Average bid-to-cover ratios of 1.39x demonstrate that demand consistently exceeds supply, a healthy sign for government fundraising.

The coming months will test whether the Treasury can execute its debt management roadmap whilst keeping yields from rising sharply, a challenge that will likely dominate financial markets through the remainder of 2026.