Ghana's Economy Set to Grow 6.4% in 2026, Outpacing Government Target

Growth Momentum Accelerates Beyond Expectations

Investment research firm IC Insights has projected Ghana's economy will grow by 6.4% (±0.5 percentage points) in 2026, significantly outperforming the government's initial target of 4.8%. The forecast is underpinned by strong first-quarter GDP data, which showed growth of 6.4% year-on-year—faster than the 6.2% recorded in the same period of 2025.

The improved growth dynamics reflect a broadening of economic momentum beyond the traditional extractive sector. IC Insights expects the government to revise its growth target upwards during the mid-year budget review scheduled for July 2026, reflecting confidence in the economy's trajectory.

Services Sector Leads Recovery

The services sector has emerged as the primary driver of growth, expanding at 7.1% in the first quarter. Within this sector, the trades sub-sector rebounded strongly to 9.0% growth compared to just 3.3% a year earlier, whilst the Information and Communications Technology (ICT) sector nearly doubled its expansion rate to 25.2% from 13.1%. Transport and haulage activities also performed robustly, growing 13.0% year-on-year.

This recovery has been buoyed by a dramatic decline in inflation, which fell to 3.2% in March 2026 from 22.4% a year prior. The lower price growth has bolstered consumer spending across households, government, and the business sector, providing crucial support to the broader economy.

Agricultural Challenges Persist

Agriculture remains a weak link, recording growth of just 4.0% in the first quarter against 6.6% previously. The slowdown has been driven primarily by weakening performance in the cocoa and fishing sectors. Cocoa growth decelerated to 3.8% year-on-year, partly due to a high comparison base from the previous year when the sector expanded by 23.1%.

Despite the near-term challenges, IC Insights expects agriculture to recover later in the year as the government prepares to launch a US$1 billion Cedi-denominated domestic bond before August 2026 to fund crop purchases and sector support initiatives.